2. Corporate tax avoidance is a clear and present significant problem
– Corporate tax avoidance remains substantive across much of the world
Researchers from the University of California and the University of Copenhagen estimate that across the globe, 36% of multinational profits (US$1trn) are artificially shifted to tax havens each year, leading to a US$226bn reduction in corporate income tax revenue.,
But tax avoidance and evasion are by no means confined to large multinational enterprises. HMRC have estimated that in the UK, the corporate tax gap for small businesses now amounts to £17.3bn, and that small businesses are responsible for 62% of all shortfalls (i.e., £36.7bn across all taxes). We detail this in our Tackling Small Business Tax Avoidance Information Hub.
In 2025, the EU released its first estimate of Europe’s corporate tax gap. This was calculated to be 11% of collected corporate income tax revenues across 23 EU states, ranging from Denmark at 3% to Romania at 35%. High-gap sectors included construction, accommodation and food services, and wholesale/retail trade, where informality and cash transactions are more prevalent, and third-party reporting is limited.
Like many, we believe profits should be taxed in the jurisdiction where underlying value is created (i.e., where the economic activities to generate those profits are carried out). However, as the OECD points out: “the current international tax rules still allow large multinationals to earn significant income in a jurisdiction without paying corporate income tax there. New business models that rely heavily on intellectual property have made it easier for multinationals to shift profits to low-tax jurisdictions. Globalisation has exacerbated unhealthy tax competition.”
– Base erosion and profit-shifting by multinationals has reduced, but remains significant
In recent years, OECD analysis has been more upbeat around the curtailment of aggressive tax avoidance by multinationals. Back in 2023, they emphasised that “the data continues to point to the existence of base erosion and profit shifting… and continues to show a misalignment between the location where profits are reported and the location where economic activities occur.” But in 2025, they draw attention to how the data suggested “modest reductions in base erosion and profit shifting in recent years”. However, in 2026, the tone has become more downbeat: “The data suggest modest increases in high-level indicators of base erosion and profit shifting in recent years, though indicators are still below earlier levels. While these indicators could reflect continuing BEPS behaviour, these data may be affected by turbulence in the global economy during high inflation periods during 2023. All these indicators remain far higher in investment hubs relative to other jurisdictions, pointing to the continued existence of BEPS activity.”
– Cause for cautious optimism
Two trends seem to be playing out. First, governments have broadened the base to which corporate tax applies and have clamped down on tax avoidance, which has driven up payments as a percentage of all taxes raised. Second, the race to the bottom on the headline rate of tax seems to have ended. This is to be celebrated.